The Slippery Eel of Probability

How do you solve probability problems that appear to have more than one correct answer?

In school, we are trained to think that math problems always have one correct answer. But this is not necessarily true for problems dealing with probability, if the method used to reach the described situation is not fully specified. Surprisingly, the same problem can then have many different answers, all apparently equally valid. Take, for example, our new puzzle: www.quantamagazine.org.

[Quanta] Editor’s note: The reader who submits the most interesting, creative or insightful solution (as judged by the columnist) in the www.quantamagazine.org comments section will receive a Quanta Magazine T-shirt. And if you’d like to suggest a favorite puzzle for a future Insights column, submit it as a comment below, clearly marked “NEW PUZZLE SUGGESTION” (it will not appear online, so solutions to the puzzle above should be submitted separately).

www.quantamagazine.org

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